WILL THE BIG CENTRAL BANKS MAKING SIGNIFICANT INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENTS THIS WEEK FOLLOW THE ECB’S LEAD AND SIGNAL THAT RATES HAVE NOW PEAKED? AND WHERE MIGHT RATES SETTLE LONGER TERM?

The US Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will all be delivering their latest interest rate announcements this week amid a new ratcheting up
of inflation worries. Rate decisions are also due from the central banks of Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland.

The Fed is… Continue reading →

LIKE VIRTUALLY EVERYTHING ELSE, THE COST
OF ENERGY IS MUCH HIGHER THAN IT USED TO
BE. COMBINED WITH HIGHER INTEREST RATES, IT SHOULD KEEP SQUEEZING ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE COMING MONTHS.

Energy prices are extremely important for global economies. Not exactly a ground-breaking insight, we’ll grant you. But it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to say that all economic activity is energy converted into stuff and experiences.

There’s labour, too, but for most jobs that’s a little drowned… Continue reading →

RATHER THAN A SLOW FADE, THE AMERICAN ECONOMY PRODUCED A SURPRISE SURGE. YET WITH INFLATION WITHIN TOUCHING DISTANCE OF THE 2% TARGET, US INTEREST RATES MAY STILL PEAK SOON.

America has weathered 2023 better than most people expected. As its inflation has sunk closer to target and its economic growth reaccelerates, US Federal Reserve (Fed) staff have now changed their minds: no recession is imminent this year. Jay Powell, the Chair of the Fed’s monetary policy committee stressed last week… Continue reading →

INTEREST RATE HIKES FOR THE US AND EUROPE ARE ALMOST CERTAIN THIS WEEK. ALL MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS ARE GETTING CLOSE TO CALLING TIME ON RATE INCREASES, BUT THE UK IS LIKELY TO BE THE LAST TO DO SO.

British inflation has played a brutal game of Higher or Lower with investors. First higher than anyone wished and then, last week when despair reached its peak, much lower than anyone expected at 7.9% for June.

You could almost drink the relief… Continue reading →