AFTER A MISERABLE YEAR FOR LIVING STANDARDS, BRITS ARE FEELING MUCH BETTER ABOUT THEIR LIVES AND THEIR FUTURES. BUT HOW MUCH WILL THAT MOVE THE DIAL FOR RETAIL SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH?

UK consumers have been miserable for a long time. But this year they’ve become significantly less miserable, according to the UK consumer confidence survey. At -24, it’s still below the long-run average of roughly -10. It had plummeted to an all-time low of almost -50 in 2022! So… Continue reading →

UPDATES ON INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT ARRIVE THIS WEEK. WILL THEY GIVE INVESTORS MORE CLARITY ABOUT THE PATHS OF INTEREST RATES?

American inflation popped slightly higher over the summer – from 3.1% to 3.7% in August where it stayed in September – mainly driven by a sharp jump in the price of petrol. The cost of housing, whether rents or mortgage payments, has also kept inflation elevated. The next US reading is released this week. Most economists expect headline CPI inflation… Continue reading →

STOCK MARKETS RIPPED HIGHER LAST WEEK AS WEAK ECONOMIC DATA REINFORCED HOPES THAT CENTRAL BANKS HAVE FINISHED HIKING INTEREST RATES.

The long-maligned FTSE 250 Index, which contains
small and mid-cap UK companies, was the surprise front runner for the world. All major Western markets moved comfortably higher over the week – a bounce-back after two pretty terrible months. But the FTSE 250 leapt an astonishing 6.7%, perhaps because it has been particularly out of favour recently. A week or so… Continue reading →

THERE’S A VERITABLE SEA OF MOVING PARTS OUT THERE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, WHICH ARE KEEPING INVESTORS ON EDGE. THE BIG QUESTION IS, HOW WILL THEY INFLUENCE CENTRAL BANKERS?

The big conundrum investors and central bankers are grappling with today is whether economic growth and inflation always go hand in hand.

Traditionally, you would say the current red-hot US economic growth must stoke up inflation. That’s because, bluntly, Americans are buying more than the economy can adequately produce. If everyone… Continue reading →